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Win Rate & Expectancy Calculator

Calculate win rate, expectancy, and expected value from trade history to assess trading strategy performance.

Win Rate & Expectancy Calculator

Calculate win rate, expectancy, and expected value from trade history to assess trading strategy performance.

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Guide

Understanding win rate, expectancy, and strategy performance

Win rate = (Winning Trades / Total Trades) × 100%. Higher win rates are generally better, but win rate alone doesn't determine profitability.
Expectancy = (Win Rate × Average Win) - (Loss Rate × Average Loss). Positive expectancy indicates a profitable strategy over time.
A strategy with 40% win rate and 2:1 risk/reward can be more profitable than 60% win rate with 1:1 risk/reward due to higher expectancy.
Expected value = Expectancy per trade. Multiply by number of trades to estimate total profit over time (before costs).
Analyze win rate and expectancy together. High win rate with negative expectancy means losses outweigh wins. Low win rate with positive expectancy can still be profitable.

Frequently Asked Questions

Win rate, expectancy, and trading strategy performance

What is win rate?

Win rate is the percentage of profitable trades out of total trades. Win rate = (Winning Trades / Total Trades) × 100%.

What is expectancy?

Expectancy is the average expected profit (or loss) per trade, calculated as (Win Rate × Average Win) - (Loss Rate × Average Loss). Positive expectancy indicates profitability.

Is a higher win rate always better?

Not necessarily. Win rate alone doesn't determine profitability. A strategy with 40% win rate and 2:1 risk/reward can be more profitable than 60% win rate with 1:1 risk/reward due to higher expectancy.

What is a good win rate?

Win rate depends on risk/reward ratio and strategy. Generally, win rates above 50% are favorable, but positive expectancy is more important than win rate alone.

How do I improve expectancy?

Improve expectancy by increasing average win size, reducing average loss size, improving win rate, or combining these. Focus on risk/reward ratio and trade quality.

What is expected value?

Expected value is the average profit (or loss) per trade, equal to expectancy. Multiply by number of trades to estimate total profit over time (before costs).

Can a strategy with negative win rate be profitable?

No. Win rate cannot be negative (it's a percentage). However, a strategy with low win rate (e.g., 30%) can be profitable if average wins are much larger than average losses (high risk/reward).

How many trades do I need for reliable statistics?

More trades provide more reliable statistics. At least 30-50 trades for initial assessment, 100+ for more reliable estimates. Larger sample sizes reduce statistical variance.

How do transaction costs affect expectancy?

Transaction costs (commissions, spreads, slippage) reduce expectancy. Subtract average transaction costs from expectancy to get net expectancy. High-frequency strategies are more affected by costs.

Should I track win rate and expectancy separately?

Yes. Track both metrics together. Win rate shows consistency, while expectancy shows profitability. A strategy with high win rate and negative expectancy is not profitable, while low win rate with positive expectancy can be profitable.

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Win Rate & Expectancy Calculator

Calculate win rate, expectancy, and expected value from trade history to assess trading strategy performance.

How to use Win Rate & Expectancy Calculator

Step-by-step guide to using the Win Rate & Expectancy Calculator:

Enter your values. Input the required values in the calculator form
Calculate. The calculator will automatically compute and display your results
Review results. Review the calculated results and any additional information provided

Frequently asked questions

How do I use the Win Rate & Expectancy Calculator?

Simply enter your values in the input fields and the calculator will automatically compute the results. The Win Rate & Expectancy Calculator is designed to be user-friendly and provide instant calculations.

Is the Win Rate & Expectancy Calculator free to use?

Yes, the Win Rate & Expectancy Calculator is completely free to use. No registration or payment is required.

Can I use this calculator on mobile devices?

Yes, the Win Rate & Expectancy Calculator is fully responsive and works perfectly on mobile phones, tablets, and desktop computers.

Are the results from Win Rate & Expectancy Calculator accurate?

Yes, our calculators use standard formulas and are regularly tested for accuracy. However, results should be used for informational purposes and not as a substitute for professional advice.